In this study a system dynamics methodology was used to identify correlation and nonlinear feedback structure among factors affecting unplanned extubation (UE) of ICU patients and to construct and verify a simulation model.

Factors affecting UE were identified through a theoretical background established by reviewing literature and preceding studies and referencing various statistical data. Related variables were decided through verification of content validity by an expert group. A causal loop diagram (CLD) was made based on the variables. Stock & Flow modeling using Vensim PLE Plus Version 6.0b was performed to establish a model for UE.

Based on the literature review and expert verification, 18 variables associated with UE were identified and CLD was prepared. From the prepared CLD, a model was developed by converting to the Stock & Flow Diagram. Results of the simulation showed that patient stress, patient in an agitated state, restraint application, patient movability, and individual intensive nursing were variables giving the greatest effect to UE probability. To verify agreement of the UE model with real situations, simulation with 5 cases was performed. Equation check and sensitivity analysis on TIME STEP were executed to validate model integrity.

Results show that identification of a proper model enables prediction of UE probability. This prediction allows for adjustment of related factors, and provides basic data do develop nursing interventions to decrease UE.

This study was conducted to analyze intubation survival rates according to characteristics and to identify the risk factors affecting deliberate self-extubation.

Data were collected from patients' electronic medical reports from one hospital in B city. Participants were 450 patients with endotracheal intubation being treated in intensive care units. The collected data were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier estimation, Log rank test, and Cox's proportional hazards model.

Over 15 months thirty-two (7.1%) of the 450 intubation patients intentionally extubated themselves. The patients who had experienced high level of consciousness, agitation. use of sedative, application of restraints, and day and night shift had significantly lower intubation survival rates. Risk factors for deliberate self-extubation were age (60 years and over), unit (neurological intensive care), level of consciousness (higher), agitation, application of restraints, shift (night), and nurse-to-patient ratio (one nurse caring for two or more patients).

Appropriate use of sedative drugs, effective treatment to reduce agitation, sufficient nurse-to-patient ratio, and no restraints for patients should be the focus to diminish the number of deliberate self-extubations.